Monday, July 21, 2014

MH370 and MH17

While my book on MH370 will be published tomorrow, kindly consider these points below that come to mind after hearing and reading all the news on these two events so far:
  1. Within days of MH370 disappearing, we heard from the US authorities that their spy satellites have the capability to monitor “atmospheric explosions” and that no such explosion was recorded on the night of 08 March. In the case of MH17, while US has taken a strong line accusing Russia for a “missile attack” by Russian supported Ukrainian rebels, it has not stated one word about what its satellites recorded. Emails to US authorities on this subject have also not been answered. 
  2. If the MH17 was actually shot down by a missile in a war-zone, it is highly unlikely that the area was not under all kinds of satellite coverage. The satellites should have recorded the explosion and then that should then be presented as a conclusive evidence of the attack. I find it very, very surprising that while allegations continue to be traded, not one shred of any evidence of an atmospheric explosion has yet been provided. 
  3. This makes me doubt the popular theory on the loss of MH17. The audio and Video recordings (about conversations between the rebels and missile truck movements) that are being aired on BBC and CNN are too convenient. Things in real life are never so simple and one sided. As an accident investigator, I have been taught to question and to weigh, not count, the evidence…and the evidence available seems to weigh very light! 
So, in the final analysis, I do believe that the US and Europe are too quick in blaming the event on a rebel missile attack. They are merely looking to use this event as a tool to pressurize Russia. There is yet no evidence of a missile attack and we have no idea what brought this plane down. The line of attack being taken will not serve the purpose of bringing out the truth, which is what needs to be the focus of any accident investigation. Not to say that I don’t believe the plane could have been shot down as alleged, but only to say that this is merely one of the many theories and presently there is no evidence to support it.

The purpose of any accident investigation is to arrive at the truth, so that another accident can be avoided. With President Obama and other European Heads of State all making statements on the missile attack even before the investigation has started, I fear we are already in a situation where any investigation will need to arrive at a conclusion of a missile attack just to just to save the faces of these all-important 'leaders'.

One wonders if it was a structural failure, or even a collision with a US or European drone that brought this aircraft down? In that case, unless we arrive at the truth and take corrective action, very soon yet another aircraft will be brought down for the very same reasons!

It is also surprising that Russia, and President Putin, have not yet asked for this evidence. Do they have something to hide? Do they not have faith and belief in the rebels who they support?

At this time, it is very important that Russia uses all its influence to permit an international that also involves Russian investigators. And US/Europe tone down the accusations and save their breath to continue to insist on this fair and independent international investigation to be conducted professionally so that the true cause can be established. If that cause does emerge to be a missile strike, then they can do whatever they want to prevent another, but not until that has been proved can these baseless allegations be permitted to continue. If they have evidence of an atmospheric explosion, they need to present that to the world. If they don't, they need to explain why not!

Best Regards,

The Erring Human.

Tuesday, July 15, 2014

About the book "Waiting...To Happen!"

Hello Friends,

Thank you for your interest and many emails. The video below gives a brief summary of the IX812 accident, which is the focus of this book. But this book is not only about IX812.

While "Waiting…To Happen!" is a true story of the Air Crash investigation into crash of IX812 in which 158 were killed, with laser focus on this accident, and narrating stories of other accidents that happened for same reasons, the book brings out why this was an accident “Waiting…To Happen!” and yet another remains Waiting…To Happen!

All the incidents and events depicted herein, are dramatizations of actual events that have occurred and are based on official investigation reports issued by the relevant government authorities for information, and use of the public. Information about the flight IX812, Air India, Air India Express, Airports Authority of India, DGCA and Mangalore Airport was obtained through a series of petitions filed under the Right to Information Act. Some names have been modified to protect the concerned individual’s privacy, however, neither the events, nor their dates have been modified. Through explanation and analysis of the accident to IX812, and many others, the book drives home the point of why such accidents occur and what must be done to prevent them from occurring again. 

This is a book that has something for everybody. To a reader of fiction, it presents an exciting, fast paced story. To managers in any high-risk industry, it provides professional knowledge and case studies that help focus attention on what needs to be done in order to remain safe. To an air traveler, it furbishes information that one must look for while selecting a carrier, by providing information on how to detect a carrier’s lack of Safety Risk Management. To an employee in the aviation industry it presents the importance of each, seemingly minor and innocuous task of aviation safety. To the average citizen, it provides questions that must be asked of their elected political representatives and civil servants in order to improve the safety performance of airlines and airports; services whose use cannot be avoided in the modern world. To the politicians and civil servants that regulate these services, it offers information that is at once insightful and relevant to their day-to-day work. This information is vital to their delivery of a good service; something that they sincerely want to, yet many do not know how to! 

The readers will be able to use the information contained herein to remain safe and ensure that accidents do not happen, but only remain Waiting … To Happen! 

Watch this Video for more:

The Cover Image:    

The cover image coveys the central message of this book. It shows a Soccer goal post, with a Pilot instead of the Goal Keeper. She/He is diving to stop the goal and instead of the Ball, coming on is an Aircraft. The implication is that the role of a Pilot is no different from that of a Goal Keeper in any Soccer match. A Pilot is merely a member of the team. She/he is the last person that has an opportunity to save a goal (accident). She/he is the only person that can use her/his hands to do so. But by no means are the Pilots only humans that can do so. In the end they are just like any other member of the team. If rest of the team does not perform, the Pilot can only do so much to prevent a loss. Like in a soccer match, even if we have the best goal keeper in the world, we will still loose the match if the team does not perform, in Aviation also, we will suffer a loss, even with the best trained and experienced Pilot, if rest of the team fails to perform! When we loose a soccer match, our first reaction is to blame the Manager, Coach or Captain. So why, when we hear of an aircraft accident, we jump to the conclusion of blaming the Pilot? To strengthen our Soccer Team, we look for the best reputed and experienced manager/coach. So why, to manage the aviation sector, we rely on Civil Servants chosen for their civil service skills and not Aviation knowledge/experience?

Thank you for your support so far and look forward to your continued support. Please do leave a reader review if you choose to read the book. The book can be ordered on-line by clicking on any of the links below: (Worldwide) (Worldwide) (India) (India)

Best Wishes, 

The Erring Human.